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Senate Democrats are mounting a last-ditch effort to reshape the Republican tax reconciliation bill using the remaining procedural tools at their disposal as the legislation heads toward a potential floor vote the week of June 23.
The Democratic strategy centers on two key fronts: challenging provisions through the Byrd rule process and preparing strategic amendments for the upcoming vote-a-rama. Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden has been conducting detailed reviews of the bill since its June 16 release, focusing on potential Byrd rule violations that could force Republicans to remove or modify provisions.
The Byrd rule challenges present both technical and substantive opportunities for Democrats. While minor violations like the bill's title "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and table of contents will likely be struck due to lack of revenue impact, more significant challenges could emerge around Republicans' use of current-policy baseline scoring for tax extensions and provisions related to the new section 899 tax. Former Finance Committee tax counsel Joshua Odintz expects "a line-by-line fight" over potential violations.
Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough must rule on these challenges before the bill can proceed, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer believes this process will extend beyond the current week, potentially delaying the GOP timeline.
The reconciliation package faces significant fiscal pressures, with preliminary estimates suggesting the tax provisions could add $3.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade, including interest costs. The Senate version is expected to be more expensive than the House bill, as it makes permanent many provisions the House had set to expire by 2028. The Joint Committee on Taxation score, expected by June 20, will determine Republicans' flexibility for modifications.
During the anticipated vote-a-rama, Democrats plan to target the bill's tax provisions and deficit impact while focusing heavily on proposed Medicaid cuts. Republicans need these healthcare spending reductions to offset the tax package's costs, but Democrats see this as the GOP's greatest vulnerability. In an April budget resolution vote, Democrats fell just one vote short of removing Medicaid cuts, with three Republican senators—Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Josh Hawley—supporting the Democratic position.
The Republican margin for error appears razor-thin. With all 47 Democratic and independent senators opposing the bill and Senator Rand Paul likely to vote against due to the $5 trillion debt limit increase, Republicans cannot afford to lose the three senators who previously supported removing Medicaid cuts.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune faces the challenge of balancing deficit hawks' demands for spending cuts against senators protective of social safety net programs. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the House version would reduce Medicaid and other healthcare spending by $897 billion, though no CBO score exists yet for the Senate version.
Adding pressure to the negotiations, President Trump has entered the fray over the state and local tax deduction cap, a key sticking point between House and Senate Republicans. Speaking at the White House on June 18, Trump warned that members of the House SALT Caucus who vote against the reconciliation bill would be "finished in power" and face a "68 percent tax increase" if TCJA provisions expire, though the source of this figure remains unclear, with Tax Foundation analysis showing 62 percent of filers would see increases.
The inter-chamber divide over SALT presents a significant challenge. The House version increased the cap to $40,000 to satisfy GOP members from traditionally Democratic-leaning states, while the Senate maintains the current $10,000 limit as a crucial revenue offset. This disagreement must be resolved alongside the procedural hurdles Democrats are creating through their Byrd rule challenges and vote-a-rama strategy.
As practitioners monitor these developments, the coming week will prove critical in determining whether Republicans can reconcile their internal divisions over SALT while maintaining party unity against Democratic procedural tactics to advance their tax priorities through the reconciliation process.
Christine Gervais is a licensed CPA, using her skills to help businesses grow and achieve their fullest potential. Christine has a Master’s degree in accounting from Southern New Hampshire University in addition to holding her CPA license for over a decade. Notably, Christine is a nationally recognized speaker providing education to other CPAs on how to best serve clients as well as instruction on a wide variety of topics for business owners on how to maximize success. Christine prides herself on the value she can bring to clients with her extensive tax knowledge and provides strategic, forward-thinking financial strategies to help clients grow. When not behind her desk, you can find Christine spending quality time with her daughter and stepson or tending to the family’s excessively loved farm animals.
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